NDP Leads the Polls: Deja Vu? by Harvey Oberfeld

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By Harvey Oberfeld

Keeping It Real…

September 8th, 2015

 

Sometimes you just have to laugh at how partisan party supporters selectively see the news.

It’s not that long ago that many NDP well-wishers were swearing off political polling after the last BC election saw the almost all the polls predicting an NDP win, but we all know how badly that prediction turned out.

The conclusion: many polls misrepresented true population demographics , left out voters with only cellphones; samples were too small; questions were  manipulated; and even designed by media corporate owners so that over-confident DP voters would stay home and allow the Liberals to pull off their victory.

Don’t trust the polls, they proclaimed!

Until now … when almost every poll, this time right across the country, say the NDP is in the lead.

A Globe and Mail poll Friday gave the NDP 31% voters support; the Liberals 30%; and, the Tories 28%.   And a Toronto Star poll was evenh better for the NDP, with 36% support; the Liberals 32%’; and the Tories 24%.

THESE polls are true, many confidently proclaim.

LOL!

I believe they are, but what we must all remember is that, AT BEST,  polls capture only the public sentiment at a given moment of any campaign: all it takes is one gaffe or mis-statement; one popular or unpopular policy announcement; some provincial or national event or even international event or just cold feet …. and it can all come tumbling down.

That is NOT the pollsters fault: that is simply keeping it real.

With six weeks to go in a campaign that hasn’t yet reached anywhere close to full steam … a lot can happen between now and Oct 19.

And, as in some many other races and competitions, the front-runner NDP could once more be the most vulnerable.

Call it the cold feet factor: where many people like what they are hearing from NDP leader Tom Mulcair, but fear giving him/party power at the same time;  where the Liberals (despite a flawed past) offer a safer, perhaps more comfortable alternative under new leader Justin Trudeau; and, despite the polls, don’t write off Prime Minister Stephen Harper … and that silent majority voting block, who may not say so publicly, but at a time of economic uncertainty and world social unrest will prefer the status quo to major change.

Not to mention important factors that may not adequately show up in leader/party preferential polls: riding boundaries advantages; unequal riding population numbers;  higher or lower voter-turnout concentrations in many ridings; and, incumbent familiarity advantages.

I still believe MOST voters will make up their minds in the last two to three weeks of the campaign.

Polls NOW indicate leanings NOW … but don’t bet on them to hold six weeks from now.

Harv Oberfeld

 

 

 

 

3 COMMENTS

  1. I have voted Tory for many years, but this time I think I’m voting NDP. Not positive, but leaning that way. NDP or Green. I refuse to give Margaret Trudeau, I mean Justin my precious vote.

    The Conservatives are living up to almost every criticism leveled at the them by the left. They ARE mean spirited, petty, vindictive and boorish. It was mean spirited, petty, vindictive and boorish to snub Flora MacDonald’s funeral. For God’s sake, they carry grudges to death and beyond? Grow UP! To paraphrase Mike Duffy “the boys in short pants” are running the country. Well this is where I get off the Titanic. The Flora MacDonald snub was the final straw for me, but the Tory candidate pissing in a customer’s coffee cup sure helped to validate my decision. And, yes I know the CBC held on to that stink bomb for maximum effect. But Karma is Karma. And so is schadenfreude.

  2. You have the rights of it Harv. Looking forward to the next poll in the wake of the two poorly vetted Con candidates and Donnelyes shameless attempt to make political hay out of that little Syrian kid’s death.

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