For those who complain that the Emmy Awards are always the same-old, same-old, this Sunday’s show could be a refreshing change. There is one new high-profile category, best reality show host, and instead of choosing one person to MC the ceremony, ABC decided to go with all five hosts nominated in the category. There’s a good chance a basic cable show will win best drama for the first time ever, after securing the medium’s first two nominations, and there are a lot of first-year shows represented in the acting categories, including ABC’s “Samantha Who?,” HBO’s “In Treatment” and FX’s “Damages.” Tom O’Neil, blogger for the Los Angeles Times awards site TheEnvelope.com, talks to Media Life about who will win, who should have been nominated, and what category holds the most drama.
Of the major categories, which one is the tightest this year?
Best drama series is a real drama this year. With six nominees, a winner, theoretically, only needs 17 percent of the vote to win, and I think five of the six contenders have a real shot at prevailing.
All except "Boston Legal," which doesn't have The Cool Factor, which seems essential to win ever since the voting system changed in 2000 from winners being determined by judging panels instead of the current system of at-home voting. Now there's some time distance between voters viewing the sample episodes and checking off their ballots, time for other factors like buzz to creep in.
"Mad Men" leads with the most nominations (16), but it's new and on a low-rated cable channel (AMC). "Damages" (FX), "Lost" (ABC) and "Dexter" (Showtime) are really in this race. "House" is too, but only with lesser odds, methinks. Because I'm a wimp, I'm betting on "Mad Men."
Where do you predict the biggest surprise will come?
Best reality host. Everybody's betting on Ryan Seacrest, but, remember, winners are chosen by voters viewing a single sample episode. Ryan doesn't get much screen time to woo voters. Watch out for Heidi Klum or Jeff Probst.
An upset is possible in the race for best variety series, too, which "Daily Show" has won five years in a row. This year "Saturday Night Live" submitted the greatest episode of that series in years -- Tina Fey's return as host. "SNL" could pull off its first win in this race since 1993.
It seems the Academy loves to reward the new kid in the best comedic actress category. Will we see Christina Applegate become the fourth straight first-year winner?
She's got an excellent chance.
Applegate submitted a terrific episode to judges called "The Restraining Order" in which she goes psycho whenever she hears a song on the radio. Voters are suckers for split-personality roles.
But America Ferrera has that too -- she goes nutso when she squirts a poisoned perfume on herself in the "Odor in the Court" episode of "Ugly Betty," which has the advantage of being a one-hour show and, as we all know, size matters in Hollywood, and especially at the Emmys where longer episodes usually win (like Ferrera last year). So I'm betting on Ferrera again.
But Julia Louis-Dreyfus beat one-hour rivals a few years ago and has a split-personality submission too this year when she freaks out with what she thinks are hot flashes at the onset of menopause. Another upset is possible.
Most pundits are betting on Tina Fey, though, and sometimes just the Cool Factor decides winners.
Did you think there were any egregious overlooks in the nominations this year?
"Pushing Daisies" got gypped -- should've been nominated for best comedy series.
Two basic cable shows were nominated in best drama this year. Does either stand a good shot at winning?
Both "Mad Men" and "Damages" have excellent shots at winning. Since they're both the first basic-cable series ever nominated for best series, drama or comedy, either could make history by becoming the first to win.
That's possible, remember, because the Emmy is a juried award, not a popularity contest like the Oscar, Tony and Grammy, its showbiz peer-group award cousins.
Will there be a sentimental Emmy favorite this year, a la "The Sopranos" last year?
Maybe Christina Applegate because of her breast-cancer battle. And maybe George Carlin in the variety lineup because of his recent death (he never won) or Don Rickles because it's his first nomination.
Pick the NBC show to take home three bests on Sunday
By Louisa Ada Seltzer MediaLife.com Sep 19, 2008
It might seem odd that NBC ranks fourth among the Big Four networks in the ratings, the result of too many shows that fall flat with viewers, but when it comes to some shows it wins hands down.
That's the case with its "30 Rock," certainly in the minds of media buyers.
When the Emmys are handed out Sunday night, media people see the quirky sitcom walking away with the most major awards of any show up for awards, fully three: One for best comedy, one for best actor in a comedy, to Alec Baldwin, and one for best actress in a comedy, to Tina Fey.
That's the outcome of a Media Life poll yesterday on the Emmys.
In best comedy, "30 Rock" was the easy winner, the choice of 55 percent of respondents, well ahead of NBC's “The Office,” which got 28 percent. No other contenders scored in the double digits.
For best comedic actress, Fey scored nearly as well with 54 percent of the vote, and also well ahead of the No. 2 choice, Christina Applegate of ABC's “Samantha Who?”
Baldwin's win was closer but he was still the clear winner at 45 percent versus Steve Carell at 31 percent for “The Office.” No. 3 was Tony Shalhoub on USA's “Monk."
Media buyers and planners think Glenn Close will win best actress in a drama for her role on FX's “Damages.” She garnered 41 percent of the vote. No. 2 was Kyra Sedgwick of TNT's “The Closer," with Sally Field of ABC’s “Brothers & Sisters” coming in third.
They predict that AMC's “Mad Men” will win best drama, and by a large margin, giving it 61 percent of the vote. Way behind, at 15 percent, came ABC's "Lost."
Best dramatic actor they believe will go to "Mad Men's" Jon Hamm, with 43 percent of the vote, and they think he'll beat out Hugh Laurie of Fox's “House," giving him 33 percent of the vote.
Asked to name the Emmy mistakes, shows or actors that either got passed over for nominations or got nominations they did not deserve, reader chose "Boston Legal" as undeserving of the nominations it got, at 36 percent.
Almost a quarter, 22 percent, chose "Pushing Daisies" for being passed over for a best comedy nomination it deserved. Almost as many, 20 percent, thought NBC's "Friday Night Lights" deserved more nominations
Will viewership be up or down this year from last year's record low tune-in?
Perhaps, but not by much, it would appear. Media people are about split with 52 percent thinking it will be up and 48 percent thinking it will fall.
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