With Jay Leno, it's all in the numbers

He's No. 1 in late night, and he'll be No. 1 again

By Toni Fitzgerald
MediaLife.com
May 15, 2008

                                                                          
With only a year left before he leaves NBC’s “The Tonight Show,” host Jay Leno will be going out on top. He dominates his CBS and ABC competition by huge margins and next week will wrap up his 13th straight year as the top-rated late-night host.

That’s what makes his impending exit so intriguing.

Everyone has assumed that successor Conan O’Brien would carry on not just Leno’s “Tonight Show” mantle but also his ratings lead.

But that's always been on the assumption that Leno would be out of the picture, retired and riding his motorcycles or doing pickup work for NBC such as the occasional special.

But what if Leno jumps to another network, as is now widely expected?

It would certainly wreak havoc, knocking NBC out of the top perch it has enjoyed for so long, with Leno likely moving quickly to No. 1.

It's all in the numbers.

This season Leno’s ratings are down a hefty 26 percent, but like most of broadcast that can be attributed in some part to the writers’ strike that sent late-night shows into reruns for two months. Even a diluted “Tonight Show” has a huge advantage over CBS, which is down 21 percent, and ABC, which is even.

Season to date, in the 11:35 p.m. timeslot, Leno is averaging a 1.4 adults 18-49 Nielsen rating, 27 percent ahead of second-place “Late Show with David Letterman” on CBS, which is averaging a 1.1. Leno is 40 percent ahead of ABC’s “Nightline,” with a 1.0 rating.

Further, since the strike Leno’s margin of victory has increased. He’s 35 percent ahead of ABC and CBS in the 11 weeks ago since the writers went back to work, and his advantage among total viewers is even bigger, 42 percent.

The question is: Could Leno recreate that magic on ABC or Fox, or in a syndication deal with Sony Pictures, all of which are reported to be pursuing him for when his NBC contract runs out in 2010?

Put another way, how much is that success NBC and how much Leno?

The answer is clearly Leno.

True, for 20 some years NBC dominated primetime, and that domination fed a large audience into the "Tonight" show, dating back to the days of Johnny Carson.

Yet when Leno first succeeded Carson 16 years ago, neither the momentum of NBC nor Carson was enough to push Leno to No. 1.

It was CBS’s Letterman who took the early lead. Late-night viewers had no problems switching to find a comedian they could connect with, and it wasn't Leno.

Leno only regained Carson's lead as he became more sure of himself and developed popular skits like his weekly headlines bit. He earned that lead.

And he's kept that lead even as NBC’s long dominance in primetime has faded to a point where it's now in fourth place.

CBS now leads in primetime in both total viewers and households, and yet Letterman has been unable to catch up. Clearly people are switching to Leno and away from Letterman, just as 16 years ago they switched from Leno to Letterman.

How well would Leno do against O’Brien? It will be hard to tell. Obviously now, with O'Brien airing at 12:35 a.m., Leno is way ahead.

For the week ended May 4, Leno was slightly ahead of his season averages. “Tonight” was first for the week, averaging 5.2 million total viewers and a 1.5 rating among adults 18-49. “Late” had 3.6 million viewers and a 1.0 rating in the demo, with “Nightline” also bringing in 3.2 million viewers and a 0.9 18-49 rating.

In late-late night, NBC’s “Late Night with Conan O’Brien” had 2.0 million total viewers and a 0.8 in 18-49s, with CBS’s “The Late Late Show with Craig Ferguson” at 1.7 million viewers and a 0.6, ABC’s “Jimmy Kimmel Live” at 1.6 million viewers and a 0.5, and NBC’s “Last Call with Carson Daly” bringing in 1.2 million viewers and a 0.5 among 18-49s.

Only one problem for Jay...
According to an interview just after this misguided "anointing" of Conan, Jay said part of the reason he agreed to this is a promise he made to his wife when he took over the Tonight Show.

He promised if it/he was a hit, he would retire at 60.

Jay doesn't seem to be the type who needs television to validate himself. He's got his regular Vegas stand-up, his website featuring his cars and he's not too worried about where the money for the cable TV bill at his house is coming from.

A special once in a while maybe, but the 5 nights a week, I believe,  is over.

I buy the promise he made to his wife. Leno is a stand up guy if anything.