As Leno passes torch to Conan,
guessing game begins


By FRAZIER MOORE
The Associated Press



NEW YORK — An orderly transfer of power: Is it possible?

With the presidency, sure. But what about late-night TV?

Despite lots of careful preparation, the Jay Leno-Conan O'Brien handoff coming next year smacks of something from Bizarro World. Will it fly with viewers — or crash? Can't you just feel the suspense?

Maybe you've got more urgent matters to dwell on right now. Like, who wins the White House or how long Katie Couric can hang on. Or those Miley Cyrus photos.

But before you know it, late night will be back on the nation's cultural radar screen (not just TV screens) in a way it hasn't since the Late Night Follies of the early 1990s. In the wake of Johnny Carson's retirement from "Tonight," the message was clear: More people were hooked on the late-night upheaval than ever got around to watching Jay or Dave.

History could repeat itself.

In mid-2009, Leno will relinquish the host chair he has occupied since May 25, 1992. He'll surrender NBC's "Tonight" to O'Brien, who moves up an hour from the outpost of "Late Night."

This transition plan was set in motion back in 2004, when NBC boldly pushed the button on a five-year countdown clock. Aimed at keeping O'Brien at NBC, the plan also guaranteed the network five more years of Leno's services at 11:30 p.m., where he continues to reign as late-night ratings champ (averaging 4.7 million viewers this season). But NBC's announcement instantly made Leno the odd man out — a designated lame duck, five years in advance, as his reward for a job well done.

By this time next year, viewers will be sizing up the first months of Conan's "Late Night" successor, expected to be Jimmy Fallon. And by then, a guessing game should be well under way: What will the unintended fallout from NBC's strategy be? What kind of aftershocks will hit the late-night landscape?

It's never too soon to start making your predictions. Within the TV industry, the game has already begun. Broach the subject with television execs, and you hear bemusement, bewilderment and scorn at NBC's tactics.

Meanwhile, these professional observers, speaking on condition of anonymity because the situation remains unsettled, spin out numerous scenarios for how things might shake out. CBS' "Late Late Show with Craig Ferguson," the hardy competitor to "Late Night," will thrive — or struggle — against newcomer Fallon. David Letterman's "Late Show" could boost its standing after years in second-place against Leno ... or not. And will the shakeup affect ABC's Jimmy Kimmel? A case can be made either way.

But that's just the sideshow. The towering uncertainty is Leno: Where will he land? He's a tireless worker, loyal company man, top performer — all grounds for dismissal on Bizarro World. Who will snap him up?

One outlandish but persistent prediction: NBC gets cold feet and decides to leave him right where he is (and where he always wanted to stay). Reneging on O'Brien would cost NBC a stiff penalty, reportedly at least $40 million. But considering how lucrative the "Tonight Show" franchise is to NBC (worth more than $100 million annually), the expense could be justified if the network had an eleventh-hour crisis of faith. Or so the theory goes.

Nonsense, says NBC. In recent weeks, Jeff Zucker, boss of NBC Universal, has re-declared the late-night initiative, as well as his confidence in O'Brien.

But can Conan deliver when he gets to the big leagues? What if he stumbles in the ratings at 11:30 p.m.?

And what if Jay agrees to remain at NBC, available to reclaim the wheel at "Tonight" and save the day?

NBC devised just such a fallback against Leno during his unpromising first months on "Tonight." As recounted in Bill Carter's book "The Late Shift," NBC offered Letterman the host job in January 1993. All he had to do was cool his heels for a year and half, until Leno's contract ran out. Then "Tonight" would be his. Letterman came close to taking the deal.

Now NBC has made no secret that it wants to keep Leno in the fold, and has offered him a slate of program options in an effort to persuade him to re-enlist.

But by the end of 2009, Leno will be free to pore over rival offers, savoring his status as the belle of the ball.

Fox has been mentioned as a possible suitor. Sony Pictures Television is reportedly eager to woo him with a cushy deal for a syndicated show.

Deemed far more likely: Leno would go to ABC, where he could launch a show at 11:30 p.m., pitting himself head-to-head against "Tonight."

But could Leno attract an audience at ABC large enough to teach his former network a lesson?

Maybe not, if you buy the theory that "Tonight" as a lofty institution helps explain Leno's late-night success all these years, and that, were he starting a talk show from scratch, he wouldn't be as popular.

Or maybe he would. Maybe he will be. Leno is the wild card. Coming up in late night, "wild" could be the word.

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/home/

Conan won't last 6 months. He ain't funny, he's juvenile. Bob Saget is funnier and that's just sad.
Leno will do fine whatever he chooses.

NBC's rolling the dice and the Conan experiment will come up "snake-eyes".  Conan is a "geek" IMHO.  The "peacock" better have a B plan ready, coz they'll need it this time as Letterman takes over as ratings king.  I hope Leno signs on with ABC.

with the Class 'A' writers at the Tonight show coupled with Conan's Ad-lib and spontaneousness I think will make him successful. He has that Johnny Carson factor about him in that you never know what is going to happen next. Leno is very in control of his show, but often sticks to the scripted jokes and doesn't have that element of surprise that Carson did.

Plus with Conan his demo is younger. To keep the Tonight show demographic from aging....the switch is a good call.

Leno proved himself during the writers strike IMHO. He's still got it but the show is getting stale just like Letterman. Conan isn't the answer.

Quoted from paddyboyy

Conan won't last 6 months. He ain't funny, he's juvenile. Bob Saget is funnier and that's just sad.
Leno will do fine whatever he chooses.

Actually...  Bob Saget's stand up routine is very funny and a lot different from his TV work.  Bob did the TV shows because they threw bags of money at him...

Regardless, Conan appeals to a younger audience.  The audience that will likely be the only ones watching the 11:30 time slot in a few years.  

As for Leno, I personally find his jokes cheesey and safe.  I hear his monlogue every day as it's a sponsored feature during my show.  Jay has become very predictable over the years but he's a guy who harmless sensibilities have made him endearing to his audience.  He'd probably do great in an afternoon talkshow role like Ellen or Oprah.  But I'd personally like to see Jay do something different, he's still got a lot to offer and could probably sustain a lengthy career doing more than late night talk.

krazycanuck85
Sorry, but 'spontaneousness' does not exist. Try spontaneity.
As for having "that Johnny Carson factor about him in that you never know what is going to happen next," I'm afraid that's a bad comparison. What usually happened with Carson was an outbreak of hilarity. Conan acts like a child at the best of times, perhaps due in part with the second rate guests the show seems to attract. NBC would be better off going with Carson reruns than pushing the Tonight Show into the ground hosted by a dud with immature humour. Just one man's opinion, however.

Amen, Dead Air.  I'm admittedly a Letterman devotee ... but I can't take Conan's juvenile stuff for more than 10 minutes.

I'm a Letterman/Conan fan....  I see Conan storming the walls successfully. There's a new generation out there and Conan can speak to it.

Quoted from Dead Air

krazycanuck85
Sorry, but 'spontaneousness' does not exist. Try spontaneity.
As for having "that Johnny Carson factor about him in that you never know what is going to happen next," I'm afraid that's a bad comparison. What usually happened with Carson was an outbreak of hilarity. Conan acts like a child at the best of times, perhaps due in part with the second rate guests the show seems to attract. NBC would be better off going with Carson reruns than pushing the Tonight Show into the ground hosted by a dud with immature humour. Just one man's opinion, however.

Thanks for the correction...and to think I make a living talking.

I would guess you're in the 35-54 demo and that's why you feel the way you do about Conan. I'm in my mid 20s and don't even bother to check in with the tonight show aside from the odd time when I'm channel flipping and see he's doing headlines. His humour is very inane, but that kind of random unexpected humour is what people in my age group are looking for. Like I said before this is a move to make sure that the tonight show audience stays younger.

What would this glorious life be without a variety of opinions, likes and dislikes. You say 'TOMAYTO' and I say 'TOMATO.'

Actually, krazycanuck85, I'm 12 years beyond that demo but being in this invigorating broadcasting/entertainment industry has taught me to have diversified tastes for both personal enjoyment and self preservation. To survive in a business that requires being in tune with the evolving audiences of today and the opinionated attitudes of younger talent (broadcasters, singers, comedians, writers, directors, producers) is not without its challenges. However, evaluating this talent pool requires utilizing some of one's own personal tastes, particularly when it comes to judging what audiences may find appealing.

Let's not forget that during the Carson era America's TV networks consisted of NBC, CBS, ABC and PBS. Carson took over a popular format that was already a proven winner in a time slot that began in some markets as early as 11:15 P.M., and consistantly reached as many as 20-30 million viewers nightly. After midnight the numbers dropped dramatically. (An estimated 50 million viewers tuned in for his final broadcast in 1992.) Johnny didn't have the competition that's around today nor was the industry as fragmented. Conan is lucky if he gets more than a million a show since not all network stations pick him up. Blessed with a brilliant combination of intelligence, natural comedic timing and a background of experience working with and for the best comedians in the business, Carson was molded to be an original. Conan, Leno, Letterman, and the rest are at best knock-offs, undoubtedly influenced by Carson, but originals in their own sense.

Never At A Loss For Words
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yiaHZW4GAyM&feature=related

Johnny Carson's Last TV Appearance
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YvaUa559gMw&feature=related"

I'll be going to bed early when Jay leaves the air. The nice thing about having a dish & living in ALberta is that I get Leno right after Bernie doing the Detroit sports at 9:35 & still get enough zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzs to do a morning show the next day. Conan? NOT A CHANCE!

NBC really needs to find a new "Tonite" Muse.  Conan, Leno and Letterman are like generational  Monarchies - they last forever with the same schtick.  Why not Martin Short?  Why not someone new?

Conan will be the Katie Couric of late night shows.  Kimmel would be the best choice for Leno's replacement.

How can Conan be the Katie Couric of late night shows if he already has a successful late night show?  You might be better off saying that Conan is the Jacques Villeneuve of late night shows, he did really well in the lesser cart circuit but when he made the jump to the ultra competitive F1 series he's been mediocre.

But the fact is when it comes to Conan, he has had good numbers for a long long time.  Jay's faithful are getting older and will be within the next 5 to 10 years watching less and less and then not at all.  So NBC is looking to their guy who's been a trusted name for the next generation for a long time.  That's Conan.

My question is, can Conan survive against the likes of The Daily Show & Colbert Report.  Because that's what his audience is watching before they watch him.

Also, why is Jimmy Fallon coming in to take over late night??