TV Season Preview: ABC Will Have a Great Year

The word: New Season is Looking Hot

Experts: Season will rank among the best ever

By Kevin Downey
MediaLife.com
Sep 6, 2007

Coming off a disappointing broadcast season last year, one might not hold out much hope for the new season, which begins in three weeks.

But in fact this coming season could well go down as one of the best in history, thanks to a slew of innovative and well-made new and returning series. That's according to an analysis from Carat, the media buying giant.

“We see a lot of interesting, distinctive shows this year,” says Shari Anne Brill, senior vice president and director of programming at Carat.“There are quite a few shows that are really good."

Brill points to 10 new shows she ranks among the best. They include ABC’s drama “Pushing Daisies,” CBS’s comedy “Big Bang Theory,” NBC’s remade “Bionic Woman,” Fox’s sitcom “Back to You” and the CW’s new comedy “Aliens in America.”

The effect on ratings will be a wash, predicts Brill, with broadcast coming in flat to last year, and that will be a good thing, after decades of year-to-year declines as the networks gave up audience share to cable and other media options, such as the internet. Says Brill: “The networks aren’t going to go up, but the new programs will stem the decline.”

Brill is forecasting that each of the networks will be even with last season when including Nielsen Media Research’s ratings for DVR-recorded programs but down based on live-only viewing.

She is projecting that ABC will be No. 1 in the 18-49 demographic in fourth quarter with an average 3.5 rating, based on only regularly scheduled programs and not counting DVR ratings, down from a 3.6 in fourth quarter 2006.

Brill’s forecast, like those of other researchers, only extends through the end of the year. Everything will change in first quarter when Fox brings back “American Idol.”

She expects NBC to be close behind ABC with a 3.4 rating, followed by CBS at a 3.2. Both networks will be down from a 3.6 rating last year, when ABC, CBS and NBC were tied at No. 1.

“You’ll see year-to-year ratings declines based on live viewing because more and more DVRs are coming into the marketplace,” says Brill. “Going into fourth quarter it’ll probably be about 20 percent of homes will have DVRs.”

Brill is forecasting that Fox will pull a 2.9 rating, slightly up from a 2.8. And the CW will rank No. 5 among English-language networks with a 1.4 in 18-49s, flat to last year, and a 1.6 rating among its core young-female viewers.

She says ABC will do well even though it has largely overhauled its lineup.

The network faltered last season with the loss of “Monday Night Football” and a scheduling screw-up with “Lost,” which was put on hiatus for months and saw a chunk of its audience disappear when it returned.

Brill notes that NBC is easing away from the smart, upscale programming strategy laid out by former entertainment president Kevin Reilly in favor of shows with more mass appeal.

CBS is being riskier than in the past with programs like the controversial reality show “Kid Nation,” where dozens of kids are left alone to form a society.

Fox is going for more consistency than in the past with less baseball and more regular programming. The CW, after last year’s rocky debut, is working to build up its credibility with buzzed-about shows like “Aliens” and the teen drama “Gossip Girl.”